Real Estate

How Low Can Foreclosure Rates Go?

The ongoing downhill journey of foreclosure activity continued in May, with starts for the month hitting the second-lowest total in more than 17 years, according to the latest data from Black Knight, Inc.

Black Knight’s First Look at mortgage performance data for May 2018 revealed a total of 44,900 foreclosure starts in May, down 8.92 percent since April and 19.53 percent year-over-year (YOY). Nationwide, only 303,000 mortgages were in active foreclosure in May, down 11,000 since April and by 118,000 year-over-year. The national foreclosure rate for May was only 0.59 percent—the lowest rate in some 15 years.

A little over 2 million properties were 30 or more days past due, or in foreclosure, as of May 2018. That total was down by nearly 30,000 month-over-month, and down by 177,000 year-over-year.

Assuming the current rate of decline continues, Black Knight estimates that foreclosure inventories should hit the pre-recession average (measured between 2000-2005) by early Q3 2018.

May also marked the fifth month in a row to see declining delinquencies. The total U.S. loan delinquency rate, measuring loans that are 30 or more days past due but not yet in foreclosure, was 3.64 percent for May. That marked a month-over-month decrease of 0.84 percent, and a year-over-year change of -4.08 percent, according to Black Knight.

The top five states by non-current percentage include Mississippi (9.49 percent, down 6.55 percent YOY), Louisiana (7.47 percent, down 13.99 percent YOY), Alabama (6.56 percent, down 7.97 percent YOY), West Virginia (6.27 percent, down 8.19 percent YOY), and Florida (6.07 percent, up 16.55 percent YOY).

The bottom five states by non-current percentage include Minnesota (2.29 percent, down 8.71 percent YOY), Washington (2.22 percent, down 19.99 percent YOY), North Dakota (2.21 percent, down 2.0 percent YOY), Oregon (2.12 percent, down 21.32 percent YOY), and Colorado (1.90 percent, down 10.21 percent YOY).

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