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Five things you should know before starting your work day on Oct. 4

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Good morning everyone. Today’s full English breakfast offers you a plateful of economic stories, with a side of Trump family interventions. Bon appétit!


If the loonie were truly just a petro-currency, it would be more than four cents higher than it is today. With all our good news lately, as well as the likelihood of more rate hikes, the Canadian dollar should be north of 82 cents. Gluskin-Sheff’s chief economist David Rosenberg looks at what’s holding the loonie back. One reason, as many agree, is our lack of competitiveness on trade.


The housing market is not headed for a major correction, Moody’s Analytics says. Toronto and Vancouver homes are still priced very high, Barb Shecter writes, although recent policies are having an effect. Moody’s report projects quite a stable housing market with no major short-term correction within five years. A downside risk, though, is that higher mortgage rates combined with those policies and borrower stress tests in hot markets such as Toronto and Vancouver could lower demand in other areas.


Household debt will pose a major risk to Canada’s economy for next three years, economists from three of the country’s largest financial institutions warn. Yes, recent high immigration can support the housing market, but high debt levels remain a problem that could exacerbate the next recession. Past 2020, “it’s really going to hit the fan.”


Donald Trump has told the Saudi king to ease up on oil prices and pay up on military protection. “I love the king, King Salman,” Trump said at a Mississippi campaign rally. “But I said, ‘King, we’re protecting you. You might not be there for two weeks without us. You have to pay for your military, you have to pay.’” Relations have improved between the two nations of late, but it remains to be seen if Trump created any animosity with his comment, made apparently during a phone conversation over the weekend.


“I’ve said before, and I’ll say again, this agreement would not have happened if it wasn’t for Jared,” U.S. trade rep Robert Lighthizer told reporters. He’s not the only saying so. “The deal fell apart more than once,” Mexican Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray said. “And in every occasion it was one person that always found a way to put it back together.” Here’s how Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner helped salvage North American trade.

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