Mortgage Rates Dip, Fed Uncertainty in Play
The average rate for a 30-year mortgage dropped 9 basis points over the past week and now measures 3.66 percent, which is 3 basis points lower than two weeks ago, according to Freddie Mac’s latest Mortgage Market Survey.
As such, the 30-year rate is now 115 basis points (1.15 percentage points) below its mark at the same time last year and back to within 25 basis points of a three/six-year low. Keep in mind that the long-term average for a 30-year mortgage is well over 6 percent but has only averaged around 4.2 percent over the past decade.
At the same time, the average rate for a 15-year fixed mortgage is currently running around 3.15 percent, which is 109 basis points (1.09 percentage points) below its mark at the same time last year, while the average rate for a 5-year adjustable has been holding at around 3.39 percent, which is 70 basis points below its mark at the same time last year.
And according to an analysis of the futures market, the probability of the Fed instituting another rate cut over the next year has been bouncing around 50 percent (i.e., who knows) while the probability of a rate hike over the next year has just inched up from zero to 2 percent as well.